Open Access and Peer-reviewed
Home Journal Issues Guide for Authors Editorial Board Aims & Scope About Journal News & Announcements


Research Article 


TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz*.

Abstract
In current scenario of surging current account deficits in Pakistan this study attempts to explore causes behind the phenomenon. It is also a fact that current account deficit and fiscal deficit are chronic troubles of Pakistan hence twin deficit hypothesis is the best candidate to be investigated. In earlier studies cointegration analysis was used to confirm the hypothesis but no study takes into consideration the structural break in the analysis which could mislead the findings. Therefore, in this study twin deficit hypothesis is investigated specifically in the presence of structural break. Gregory-Hansen test of co-integration is applied on data from 1980 to 2017 which confirms the long run relationship between current account deficit, fiscal deficit, real effective exchange rate, economic growth and fuel imports. Then in the perspective of structural break and long run relationship, ARDL methodology inclusive of dummy interaction terms validates twin deficit hypothesis in recent scenario of Pakistan. It is also concluded that proclaims of policy makers in Pakistan regarding catching up effect of growthforcurrent account deficit are found to be partially true because economic growth is inlong run relationship with current account deficit but itsroleis not yet clear.

Key words: Twin Deficit, Structural Break, Cointegration, Gregory-Hansen Test


 
ARTICLE TOOLS
Abstract
PDF Fulltext
How to cite this articleHow to cite this article
Citation Tools
Related Records
 Articles by Ishtiaq Ahmad
Articles by Mehmood Ul Hassan
Articles by Muhammad Atif Nawaz*
on Google
on Google Scholar


How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz. TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK. EEO. 2021; 20(5): 5888-5900. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662


Web Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz. TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK. http://ilkogretim-online.org//?mno=76274 [Access: April 26, 2021]. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz. TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK. EEO. 2021; 20(5): 5888-5900. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz. TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK. EEO. (2021), [cited April 26, 2021]; 20(5): 5888-5900. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662



Harvard Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz (2021) TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK. EEO, 20 (5), 5888-5900. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662



Turabian Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz. 2021. TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK. Elementary Education Online, 20 (5), 5888-5900. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662



Chicago Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz. "TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK." Elementary Education Online 20 (2021), 5888-5900. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz. "TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK." Elementary Education Online 20.5 (2021), 5888-5900. Print. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Ishtiaq Ahmad, Mehmood Ul Hassan, Muhammad Atif Nawaz (2021) TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS IN PAKISTAN: A NON-LINEAR APPROACH WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK. Elementary Education Online, 20 (5), 5888-5900. doi:10.17051/ilkonline.2021.05.662








AUTHOR LOGIN

REVIEWER LOGIN

Indexed
&
Abstracted


Indexing

İlköğretim Online (IOO) - Elementary Education Online (EEO) is indexed in:


ABOUT JOURNAL
POLICIES
STATEMENTS